Statistics

Three friends in Dublin told you it's rainy. Each has a probability of 1/3 of lying. What's the probability of Dublin is rainy?

Data Scientist

Microsoft

Stripe

Pinterest

Figma

EPAM Systems

Robinhood

Did you come across this question in an interview?

  • Three friends in Dublin told you it's rainy. Each has a probability of 1/3 of lying. What's the probability of Dublin is rainy?
  • Given that each of three friends in Dublin has a 1/3 chance of lying, what is the probability that it's actually raining there?
  • How would you calculate the odds of it raining in Dublin if three friends report rain, but each could lie with a probability of 1/3?
  • What's the likelihood that it's raining in Dublin if three friends, who each have a 1/3 chance of not telling the truth, say it is?
  • Can you determine the probability that Dublin is experiencing rain based on the reports of three friends who each have a 1/3 chance to lie?
  • Assuming you have three friends in Dublin who each have a one in three chance of lying, what's the probability that their claim of rain is true?
  • If you're told by three friends in Dublin that it's raining, and each has a 1/3 probability of lying, what's the probability the claim of rain is actually true?
  • If three friends in Dublin, each with a one-third likelihood of lying, tell you it's raining, what's the probability that it is indeed raining?

Interview question asked to Data Scientists interviewing at Zendesk, Stripe, Squarespace and others: Three friends in Dublin told you it's rainy. Each has a probability of 1/3 of lying. What's the probability of Dublin is rainy?.